The Paper Feed

A feed of Bayesian network related papers, articles, books and research that we happen across and find of interest

Sensitivity Analysis in a Bayesian Network for Modeling an Agent

Ishino, Y.
2018
Agent-based social simulation (ABSS) has become a popular method for simulating and visualizing a phenomenon while making it possible to decipher the system’s dynamism. When a large amount of data is used for an agent’s behavior, such as a questionnaire survey, a Bayesian network is often the preferred method for modeling an agent. Based on the data, a Bayesian network is used in ABSS. However, it is very difficult to learn the accurate structure of a Bayesian network from the raw data because there exist many variables and the search space is too wide. This study proposes a new method for obtaining an appropriate structure for a Bayesian network by using sensitivity analysis in a stepwise fashion. This method enables us to find a feature subset, which is good to explain objective variables without reducing the accuracy. A simple Bayesian network structure that maintains accuracy while indicating an agent’s behavior provides ABSS users with an intuitive understanding of the behavioral principle of an agent. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, data from a questionnaire survey about healthcare electronics was used.
Posted 14 Dec 2018 · Link

Probabilistic Age Classification with Bayesian Networks

Emanuele Sironi and Vilma Pinchi and Franco Taroni
2018
In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow the user to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are extremely promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.
Posted 21 Oct 2018 · Open Link · Link